As nerdy as I am, I calculated two possible time/pace scenarios for the Rock n Roll this coming Sunday based on course elevation, my corral assignment (Corral 8), weather(forecast for sunny skies in 70s), current knee injury prognosis (won't know until I see my chiropractor Friday) and the number of people who will be in my way the first five miles (thousands of them).
Scenario 1:
Alternate every two miles from 9min/m to 8:30min/m pace
Goal: 3:50
Mile 1 - 09:00
Mile 6 - :53:00
Mile 12 - 1:45
Mile 13.1 - 1:55
Mile 18 - 2:38
Mile 20 - 2:55
Mile 24 - 3:30
Finish - 3:50
Scenario 2:
Alternate every two miles from 9:30min/m to 9min/m pace
Goal: sub 4:00
Mile 1 - :09:30
Mile 6 - :56:00
Mile 12 - 1:52
Mile 13.1 - 2:02
Mile 18 - 2:48
Mile 20 - 3:06
Mile 24 - 3:42
Finish - 4:00
In this case, I have to hit a negative split in the second half otherwise I would go over 4:00 by a couple minutes.
There's the option of using a pace group and trying to hang with them or the usual route I take which is run too fast in the first five miles and then fall into a moderate pace before peetering out the last six miles and walking while cursing under my breath.
Hmmm. Decisions, decisions.
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